American voters are approaching the presidential election with deep unease about what might come next, including the potential for political violence, attempts to overturn the results and broader implications for democracy, according to a new poll.
The findings of the poll, conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, speak to lingering concerns about the fragility of the world’s oldest democracy, nearly four years after former President Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election inspired a mob of his supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol.
About four in 10 registered voters say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about violent attempts to overturn the results after November’s election.
A similar number are concerned about legal efforts to do so, and about one in three voters say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about attempts by local or state election officials to block the finalization of the results.
Relatively few voters — about a third or less — are “not very” or “not at all” worried about that happening.
Trump’s sweeping attempts to reject the will of voters and hold on to power after his 2020 defeat have led to concerns that he would again not concede if he loses to Vice President Kamala Harris.
Nearly nine in 10 voters said the loser of the presidential election is obligated to concede once all states have finished counting their votes and legal challenges are resolved, including about eight in 10 Republicans. But only about a third of voters expect Trump to accept the results and concede if he loses.
Democrats and Republicans have widely differing views on the issue: About two-thirds of Republicans think Trump would concede, compared with about one in 10 Democrats.
The same concern does not apply to Harris. Nearly eight in 10 voters said the Democrat would accept the results and concede if she lost the election, including a solid majority of Republican voters. Members of both parties have broad concerns about how American democracy will fare depending on the outcome of the November election.
Overall, about half of voters believe Trump would “a lot” or “somewhat” weaken democracy in the United States if he were to win, while about four in 10 said the same of Harris. Not surprisingly, Americans were deeply divided along ideological lines.
About eight in 10 Republicans said another Trump term would “a lot” or “somewhat” strengthen democracy, while a similar share of Democrats said the same about a Harris presidency.
About nine in 10 voters in each party said the opposing candidate would likely weaken democracy at least “somewhat” if elected. Part of what divides voters in their views of American democracy is the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and who is to blame. Democrats and independents are much more likely than Republicans to attribute “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of responsibility to Trump.
Opinions about the January 6 attack are not the only ideological divide among voters. Following Trump’s lead, most Republicans say Biden was not legitimately elected. Nearly all Democrats and about seven in 10 independents believe Biden was legitimately elected.
This year’s presidential campaign has highlighted an aspect of the American political system that some consider undemocratic — the use of the Electoral College to elect the president instead of the popular vote. Trump and Harris have focused their campaign events and advertising on seven battleground states that represent just 18 percent of the country’s population.
About half of voters think the possibility of a candidate becoming president by winning the Electoral College but losing the popular vote is a “big problem” in the U.S. election.
The survey of 1,072 adults was conducted October 11–14, 2024, using a sample drawn from the University of Chicago’s NORC probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
