An increase in global average temperature of between 3 and 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century would lead to the death of 2.3 million people in Europe due to heat, reveals a study in the journal Nature Medicine.
The study published on Monday, which modelled the impact of rising global average temperatures on 854 urban areas in 30 European countries, reveals that some of the worst-affected cities would be Spanish cities such as Barcelona, Madrid and Valencia.
The researchers considered three temperature scenarios: one in which the Paris Agreement to combat climate change is met and global temperatures do not rise more than 2 degrees by the end of the century; another in which it rises between 2 and 3 degrees; and a third, of between 3 and 4 degrees of increase by the end of the century, which is where we are heading according to the current emissions trajectory.
"We took into account the variables that relate temperature and mortality over the last 20 years and analyzed them with 19 climate models in the three temperature scenarios mentioned," one of the authors, Veronika Huber, a biologist and specialist in environmental epidemiology at the Doñana Biological Station (EBD-CSIC).
In the worst-case scenario, with an increase in global average temperature of around 4 degrees by the end of the century, Barcelona (northeastern Spain) would be the European city with the most excess deaths associated with high temperatures by the end of the century: 246,082, they calculate. the researchers.
After Rome and Naples, Madrid ranks fourth among the most affected cities, with 129,716 additional heat-related deaths by the end of the century, and Valencia seventh, with 67,519.
In fifth and sixth place are Milan and Athens, respectively.
According to previous studies, Europe has 10 cold-related deaths for every 1 heat-related death, but climate change is upsetting this balance, causing heat-related mortality to rise despite a possible decline in heat-related deaths. cold.
"Even if cold deaths decrease if global temperatures rise, the balance would still be very negative, because additional heat-related deaths would increase dramatically and exceed two million," Huber adds.
The good news is that researchers found that in the most optimistic scenario, in which emissions are reduced and the Paris Agreement is implemented, limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 degrees by the end of the century, 70% of deaths from high temperatures could be avoided.
The key is to drastically reduce emissions, the researcher stresses, because although it is "essential" to adapt cities to rising global temperatures, adaptation measures alone would not be enough to prevent the increase in heat-related deaths in the region. Mediterranean, Central Europe and the Balkans.
Outside the Mediterranean region, the impacts are expected to be less severe and in cities such as Paris, 13,515 additional deaths are expected by the end of the century due to a combination of excessive cold or heat.
Most cities in the British Isles and Scandinavian countries could see a net decrease in deaths, one of them being London (minus 27,455 deaths).
This decline is offset by increases in the rest of Europe, resulting in an additional 2.3 million deaths in the worst-case warming scenario.
"Climate change deniers often claim that a warmer climate can be beneficial. Our study shows that their arguments are nonsense - even if cold-related mortality were to decrease, additional heat-related deaths would increase so much that there would be no compensation ", concludes Huber.
