Ukraine has suffered a sharper troop drawdown than Russia in 2024, which has benefited from support from North Korea and Iran, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) says.
In the 2025 edition of the Military Balance, which the British think tank produces annually, the IISS indicates that Kyiv is struggling with many weakened ground units due to a lack of personnel.
"The data suggests that Ukraine, which has generally kept its casualty figures secret, has suffered severe personnel losses and faces challenges in managing its armed forces," it said in a statement.
Russia, which has also lost a large number of soldiers and equipment, has benefited from Cold War material reserves, the sending of 10,000 soldiers by North Korea and the production of drones and missiles by Iran.
The IISS estimates that Russia will lose an additional 1,400 tanks by 2024, leaving the infantry vulnerable to further casualties even if it reduces the intensity of the offensive, and that the Black Sea Fleet's capabilities appear limited.
However, he points out, attacks with low-cost 'glider bombs' launched beyond the reach of Ukrainian defenses continue to threaten Ukraine.
Although Kyiv has received more advanced military equipment, it arrives in lower volumes than desired and with strict rules of use determined by Western allies.
The Military Balance indicates that Moscow has larger reserves of projectiles, using various types of missiles, drones and other devices as a diversion to confuse and overwhelm air defenses and make Ukrainian forces expend ammunition.
According to the IISS, although the European Union failed to deliver one million artillery rounds to Ukraine by spring 2024, production capacity has increased and the EU should be able to produce two million shells per year by the end of 2025.
The IISS produces an annual Military Balance, which assesses military capabilities and defense economics worldwide and includes up-to-date data on military structures, equipment inventories, and budgets for more than 170 countries.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, arguing that it wanted to protect pro-Russian separatist minorities in the east and "denazify" the neighboring country, independent since 1991 - after the collapse of the Soviet Union - and which has been moving away from Moscow's sphere of influence and closer to Europe and the West.
The war in Ukraine has already claimed tens of thousands of lives on both sides, and recent months have seen large-scale Russian air strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, while Kyiv's forces have targeted targets on Russian territory near the border and on the Crimean peninsula, illegally annexed in 2014.
