China’s population declined for the third year in a row in 2024, according to figures released today, pointing to new demographic challenges in the world’s second-most populous nation.
China’s population stood at 1.408 billion at the end of 2024, down 1.39 million from the same period the previous year.
The figures announced by the government follow global trends, but especially in East Asia, where Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and other countries and regions have seen their birth rates plummet.
Three years ago, China joined Japan and most of Eastern Europe as countries whose populations are declining.
The reasons are often similar: Rising living costs are leading young people to delay or forgo marriage and childbearing while they pursue higher education and careers. Although people are living longer, that is not enough to keep up with the rate of new births.
Countries like China, which allow very little immigration, are especially at risk.
China has long been among the world’s most populous nations, weathering invasions, floods and other natural disasters to maintain a population that had thrived on rice in the south and wheat in the north.
After the end of World War II and the Communist Party’s rise to power in 1949, large families returned and the population doubled in just three decades, even after tens of millions of people had died in the Great Leap Forward, which sought to revolutionize agriculture and industry, and in the Cultural Revolution that followed a few years later.
After the end of the Cultural Revolution and the death of leader Mao Zedong, the communist regime became concerned that the country’s population was outgrowing its ability to feed itself and began implementing the “one-child policy.”
Although it was never a law, women had to ask for permission to have a child, and offenders could face forced late-term abortions and birth control procedures, hefty fines, and the prospect of their child being stripped of an identification number, effectively rendering them illegal in their own country.
Rural China, where the preference for male offspring was especially strong and where two children were still ostensibly permitted, became the focus of government efforts, with women required to provide proof that they were menstruating and buildings bearing messages such as “Have fewer children, have better children.”
The government sought to eradicate sex-selective abortion of female children, but with abortions legal and readily available, illicit ultrasound operators flourished.
This has been a major factor in China’s gender imbalance, with tens of millions more boys than girls, raising the possibility of social unrest.
The data released today revealed that the gender imbalance is 104.34 men for every 100 women, although independent groups believe the gap is considerably higher.
More worrying for the government has been the dramatic fall in the birth rate, with China’s total population set to decline for the first time in decades by 2023 and China set to be overtaken by India as the world’s most populous nation in the same year.
A rapidly ageing population, a declining workforce, a lack of consumer markets and overseas migration are putting the system under severe strain.
While spending on the military and flashy infrastructure projects continues to rise, China’s already fragile social security system is faltering, with a growing number of Chinese refusing to pay into the underfunded pension system.
Currently, 22% of the total population, or 310.3 million people, are aged 60 or over. This figure is expected to exceed 30% by 2035, prompting discussions about changes to the official retirement age, which is one of the lowest in the world. With fewer students, some vacant schools and kindergartens are being converted into care centers for the elderly.
